How much is gay tourism worth to Croatia? Crunching some numbers

An Expat in Zagreb

By Roger Malone

Everyone's talking about gay tourism in Croatia now. Indeed, in an article in today's Jutranji list, I suggested it was ridiculous to put gay tourism dollars and, perhaps, Croatia's future at risk for what amounts to a meaningless change in the national constitution.

To which someone on Facebook told me:

"This is funny! Right. The gays are the future! I agree, no gays, no fun clubs. We will die and perish without dancing gays!"

At first, of course, I was stunned. Some of my gay friends are pretty boring, so the idea that all her gay friends are all-night partiers was astonishing. I felt left out.

Then I started wondering what gay tourism is really worth to Croatia. The number would be relevant to a country that relies on tourism for about a fifth of its GDP. In an earlier blog, I wrote the figure could be about a billion euros. That estimate was a quick back-of-the-envelop calculation.

So, let's look at the numbers. The Gay European Tourism Association (GETA) in a 2012 report estimated that openly gay Europeans spend about 50 billion euro a year on travel in Europe. In essence, the group said it arrived at this figure from data on overall population, the openly gay population and travel figures from the European Commission. Any number from a special interest group tends to be on the high side, but GETA's estimate is the best that I've found.

Meanwhile, a report from the UN's World Tourism Organization shows that Croatia's tourism receipts were about 8.8 billion euros in 2012, about 2 percent of 458 billion euros for all of Europe. (I'm using UN figures for consistent data across countries.) Assuming gays follow the same travel pattern as anyone else, 2 percent of 50 billion euros is 1 billion euro, which would be Croatia's share of the gay travel money.

The GETA report also puts gay tourism in Europe at about 8 percent of the total market. This is higher than the proportion of openly gay individuals in Europe, the group says, because gays generally don't have children or the expenses associated with child rearing and therefore have more disposable income. Eight percent of Croatia's tourism revenues, based on the UN figures, would be about 700 million euros.

This puts European gay tourism in Croatia between 700 million and 1 billion euros. Even assuming GETA numbers are on the high side, it's probably safe to assume gay tourism accounts for at least 500 million euros a year in Croatia. More millions are spent here by gays from outside Europe, families and friends of gays and closet gays, which aren't captured in GETA's figures.

That's what was risked by passing the marriage referendum: gays booking hotel rooms and holiday houses, eating scampi and pizza, renting cars, scooters, boats and bikes and, yes, dancing and drinking in clubs.

The Tourism Ministry is now trying to keep gays coming to Croatia. "I invite all, like up until now, and even more to come. As Minister of Tourism, I guarantee them a good time in Croatia," the minister said. (As an aside, I wish someone could guarantee me a good time when I travel.)

In essence, the ministry is saying: Dear gay community, please ignore that awkward vote we just had. You weren't supposed to notice. We asked, and about one in three people here will probably be friendly to you. So, please come and spend, spend, spend.

I really hope my Facebook correspondent is right, and gays give Croatia a break. They would be showing the country much more spiritual generously than they've been given.

[Follow Roger Malone on twitter at @ExpatinZagreb or at www.expatinzagreb.blogspot.com]

Bucking the trend, Croatia embraces ‘tradition’ and risks its future

(The Croatian version of this article ran in today's Jutarnji List, Croatia's largest daily newspaper.)

An Expat in Zagreb

By Roger Malone

When George W. Bush won a second term as president of the United States in 2004, Thomas Friedman started his column in the New York Times, “Well, as Grandma used to say, at least I still have my health.” I’m not sure Croatia has its health anymore.

Watching the results of Sunday’s referendum was like watching a beloved relative with cancer who refuses to give up smoking. Actually, the metaphor is understated. In Croatia’s case, the patient takes up smoking in the middle of treatment.

Croatia’s economic problems are profound and complex. But, if the experience from successful emerging markets is any guidance, part of the solution includes building effective democratic institutions, defining a positive vision for the future and creating an attractive climate for foreign investment.  Like putting down the cigarettes, these prescriptions are straightforward and generally accepted.

Instead, despite almost five years of economic misery with little hope for immediate recovery, Croatia in Sunday’s vote bypassed such common-sense approaches. In a thinly veiled attack on gays orchestrated by a Catholic group, it chose to defend a traditional definition of marriage that was never under threat. As President Josipović suggested, the vote Sunday may establish Croatia as a country of intolerance at a time when the global trend is toward tolerance. Even Pope Francis has warned against the church’s obsession with conservative issues including gay marriages.

The referendum did no one any good and changes nothing for most Croats. Only gays, the target of this oppressive measure, will feel a slight sting. (“Slight” because “marriage” is just a word. The Sabor can still define civil unions any way it sees fit with whatever rights it deems appropriate.) If the referendum had failed, no one was going to force a straight Croat to marry someone of the same sex. Ever.

Yet the potential for harm is vast. "While many countries have not legalized gay marriage, Croatia here seems to go out of its way to be negative to gay people," Paul Barnes, head of communications for the Gay European Travel Association (GETA), told Bloomberg News. "Even though the proposed change to the constitution doesn't take away any existing gay rights, it will be seen as a negative moment, and a setback like this can act as a catalyst that mobilizes the gay community."

GETA estimates that gays spend about 50 billion euros a year on travel in Europe and has recommended more than 50 gay-friendly hotels in Croatia. The potential of a travel boycott by gays, their friends and families might just be bluster, but was the risk worth it for a backward measure that means little? It will be impossible to calculate how many months or years -- if any, of course -- passing the referendum will delay Croatia's economic recovery. Tourism numbers next year will offer only a hint.

But Croatia might not have to wait that long to feel the repercussions of the referendum's victory. From an AFP story, Zeljka Markić with In the Name of the Family, the group behind the referendum, said soon after the votes were counted, "This time (it was) for the protection of marriage, and next time for something else of the same importance." The only thing missing was a melodramatic laugh at the end, bwa ha ha ha. Her group barred respectable media outlets from its headquarters on referendum day, illustrating its regard for democratic institutions such as a free press.

Some people I've talked with will see the referendum as a victory for democracy, for majority rule, It's not. The majority of Croats were simply apathetic. Also, "majority rule" is the easiest concept of democracy to grasp. A much more difficult concept is that in a mature democracy the majority must also protect the rights of the minority, even and especially those it might not like. Croatia still seems to be working on that part. Maybe as more people are caught by "something else of the same importance" to Markić the idea will start to sink in.

[Follow Roger Malone on twitter at @ExpatinZagreb or at www.expatinzagreb.blogspot.com]