Monday, October 14, 2013

Poker as a metaphor for Croatia

(This is an edited excerpt from comments I gave to eStudent, the student association of the University of Zagreb, on Oct. 10, 2013. Thanks to Hrvoje Tkalec for inviting me and to the students who attended.)

An Expat in Zagreb
By Roger Malone

Does anyone here play poker? Poker is all about the players and the odds. For instance, in one variation of poker called Texas Hold ‘Em, if you’re given two aces at the start you have about an 80-percent chance of winning your hand against one other player. But you also have a 20-percent chance or so of losing. New players -- "fish" in poker jargon -- if they know the odds at all, feel that 80 percent is close to a sure thing. It's not, and in the wrong game you can lose everything despite the favorable odds. 

(I was once in the first hand of a live, low-stakes tournament. Three players bet everything right away, and when they showed their cards one had two kings, one had two queens, and one had two tens. The kings were the favorite, but the tens won the hand, sending the other two players home.)

When you lose a hand despite the odds, it's called a "bad beat." And when fish fall victim to a bad beat, they curse the world. They fume at how stupid the other player was for staying in the hand. They glare at the dealer. They shake their fists at the poker gods somewhere up there in the sky. And most important -- especially if they still have chips and you're sitting at the table -- they play really bad poker for a while. They throw easy chips into the pot and squander any opportunities that may come their way. In poker terms, it's called going on "tilt," like when you bang against an old pinball machine because the ball dropped directly between the flippers.

The best players learn not to go on tilt. They forget about the bad beat from the last hand and move on with a clean slate and whatever chips they have left. They focus on the new odds, the new cards, and the other players. They focus on rebuilding their stack of chips and winning the game.

Sometimes it seems that Croatia is on national tilt, still focusing on how unfair that last hand was and moving forward carrying a grudge that can blind it to the future: Slovenia had it easy when it broke from Yugoslavia and took some advantages and cash. Some people got rich when state property was privatized in the 1990s. Atrocities were committed during the war, and ancient hatreds linger. There’s truth in all of this and unfairness … and a lot of excess baggage.
A while ago, I was working on the draft of an English response to some criticism that had been included in a report about Croatia. To my eyes, the criticism was a little over the top, but not exceptionally so. I was told several times by smart people, though, that the reason the report was critical was because the organization that issued it had a Serb secretary on its staff. I tried to pass it off as a joke, but it was clearly not meant to be one. True or not, focusing on a Serb secretary in part blinded my client to any valid criticism worth considering from the report and, perhaps more importantly, colored the way it wanted to respond to the report in a way that the response would have lost some credibility.

Here’s the question for you: Is it time for Croatia to shake off the tilt, pick up the cards it has and make the its best plays as the game moves forward? Yes, prosecute individuals if the evidence is there. Yes, remember the personal and collective sacrifices made as Croatia struggled for independence. And yes, take care of those who made those sacrifices. But move ahead without the delusion that all the wrongs of the past can be magically wiped away?
I obviously don't have the answers, and I don't pretend to. Sometimes, I don't even know whether I understand the questions. But I know one thing. Your generation is key. Your generation has the opportunity to disconnect from the past. Your generation has the power to insist on leaders that can articulate a modern vision for the future. Your generation has the ability to stop keeping score, to stop trying to balance a ledger that can never be reconciled. That is your opportunity, and that is Croatia’s opportunity.

12 comments:

  1. Very well said...the hope of the world is to leave all the stories and hatreds behind and move on. Thanks for the article.

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  2. Thats true, the new generation will bring change but the old generation are raising them to remember the past.

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    1. Please tell me WHO is NOT raising their children with akin look to the past? Animals? Of course that every child will know WHO was killing all over 20th century, that is in the history books. Lets forget IIWW, lets forget Holocaust, what do you say? Not gonna happen, right? But, you want Croatian to forget their past! SHAME ON YOU!

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  3. Nothing wrong with remembering the past. The key is to move forward, well, by looking forward, not looking backward. Also, I think the old generation, generally, over estimates how much influence they have on how the younger generation sees things.

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  4. Pardon me for saying but the social/political analysis of Croatian circumstances done by comparison to a poker game is rather offensive and one sided.There are so many components which keep this historical pendullum of war and hate going on.There is no magical formula of forgetfulness for the younger generation.our families and national identity is still so strong that only the invention of some Croatian form of kibbutz upbringing could erase that.But why should a nation forget anything in its history at all,who did this anywhere? The answer probably lies in economic prosperity of the region, education and better political leaders.It's much easier to let history rest.leave it in the past (where it should be) if you have a job, are paid enough to feed your family and can pay the rent.

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    1. Totally agree that Croatia's challenges are complex. Among the problems people mention are corruption, government credibility, tax cheats, welfare cheats, a dying manufacturing sector, the grey market, youth unemployment, unemployment generally, budget deficits, a bloated bureaucracy... the list goes on. It's impossible to do everything that's needed at once, but a good place to start is to look forward rather than backward. I've tried to emphasize that I don't suggest forgetting the past, but rather to stop dwelling on it. In my mind, there is a difference.

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    2. Even though Croatians can be very close-knit as families and achieve a sort of collective mind when in existential difficulites, we also have a very doubting mind and resilient nature. We survived the Roman, the Turkish, the German, the Italians occupation and more in between. We are not a simple folk even though we tend to make smiple folk's mistakes.Our nature and mentality has layers like an onion, thus I can see the how a benevolent foreigner, might assume there are easy answers to our problems.Although -yes, we need different perspectives and solutions, most of all we need a critical mass of a new kind of politicians which we didn't inherit from any past right or left wing.Since there is nothing better in sight on the political horizon,we are doomed to unproductive comments on blogs.Yes, by all means, enlighten us.Don't give us fish, teach us how to catch fish in muddy waters...

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    3. As I've tried to make clear in my comments, I don't pretend to know the solutions to Croatia's problems or that I offer enlightenment. I just add a voice to the conversation. And I agreee, there are no easy answers. When I talked with a university group recently, one woman in the audience offered, as you do, that new politicians with vision are needed. Absolutely. But do you have time to wait for someone to wonder onto the stage or should you search for that someone?

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  6. Hello Roger,

    You didn't tell us where are you from, I am guessing that you are Irish or Irish American, in any case, why USA is not moving on, after 9/11? Or why Irish didn't "move on" from the past with UK? Please, do not assume that we Croatians are stupid and please do not tell us what to do. You DO NOT KNOW anything and do not understand anything, because it is important that some serb is sitting somewhere, because they NEVER forget and move on, the always work on their agenda, while telling others to move on. We know them and you DO NOT!

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    1. The last time I checked, we HAD moved on from the our bitter history with the British. Anyone who thinks otherwise is probably a terrorist.

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  7. Such a difficult topic. One that I am not sure any expat can fully understand, very good read and I look forward to watching Croatia prosper.

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