FACING DOWN THE NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY

As a parent, I find bullies troublesome. Or, more exactly, I find the line that separates good-natured teasing or a bit of roughhousing from true bullying difficult to define.

Every healthy relationship includes some teasing and even roughhousing. Wives tease husbands about not asking for directions, and husbands tease wives about willful ignorance of high technology. Parents tickle children until they’re breathless, and children retaliate with precisely timed leaps onto a sleeping figure. And friends tease friends about, well, anything.

Generally, this kind of behavior is harmless, especially when grossly outweighed by moments of love, companionship and camaraderie. The best response is often to shrug it off, laugh about it, or retaliate in kind.

But at an almost unnoticeable point, roughhousing can become bullying. The teasing continues just a bit longer than it should or gets a bit too intense. The balance breaks. The victim feels a moment of panic, while the bully starts getting a false sense of power. At some point the bully crosses a line, and it’s time for the victim to change tactics and stand firm.

Slovenia gleefully leapt across that line a few years back, when momentum was gathering for Croatia’s entry into Europe’s not-so-exclusive trading club. It unabashedly jumped in front of Croatia and demanded some lunch money for no better reason than getting to the club first. Of course, then the lunch money was access to international waters in the Adriatic, and Slovenia was not only saying it would keep Croatia out of the EU, but also out of the super cool group in camo-clothing, NATO. It ended in 2009 when Croatia basically agreed to take the dispute to the principal’s office.

Fast forward three years, and Slovenia is again demanding lunch money in a last-ditch effort to leverage Croatia’s EU membership dreams into some cold hard euros. What’s a little blackmail among neighbors, especially when you’re only asking for peanuts in exchange opening the door to billions of euros in EU funds?

A cost-benefit analysis easily argues in favor of giving Slovenia what it wants. But there are a couple of factors that Croatia should consider before digging deep for that lunch money. First, like all bullies, Slovenia isn’t quite as tough as it wants to be. Its government makes the Croatian political system look absolutely functional by comparison. At least Ivo Sanader had the good grace to resign amid growing rumors of wrongdoing, while Janez Janša clings to a minority mandate. (Geez, even Richard Nixon resigned when the end was inevitable.)

And second, Slovenia risks being abandoned by its own gang. Over the past month or so EU officials have publically and not-so-subtly—at least for diplomats—been suggesting Slovenia should back down. On Tuesday, Štefan Füle, European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy, noted that Croatia “is a few months away from becoming the 28th member state” and singled out the success of using arbitration to settle Croatia and Slovenia’s sea dispute. Earlier in January, there was an interesting exchange over Twitter:

Guardian European Editor Ian Traynor: “Do you think the (Croatian) accession is done and dusted?”

British Ambassador to Croatia David Slinn: “UK view is that Croatia is on track to be ready in full to accede to the EU on 1 July 2013.”

And Britain wasn’t always Croatia’s biggest supporter when it came to EU accession. If this is being said openly, we can only imagine what EU gang leaders are telling little Slovenia back at the clubhouse. After all, the EU can use some good vibes at the moment and a credibility boost. Showing it’s still the club to join would be a cause to celebrate.

 So, whatever game Slovenia is playing, I suspect it was meant to end in Croatia’s entry into the EU as planned in July. Slovenia would wring whatever concessions it could from Croatia over the bank dispute, but wouldn’t risk upsetting its EU colleagues too much. In 2007-2013, for example, Slovenia was eligible for more than 4 billion euros in EU Cohesion Funds and will likely want to continue drawing from that well in the next funding cycle. Would Slovenia really want those purse strings tighten?

Slovenia’s crumbling government adds a sudden twist to the story, and it’s an open question whether the country can now move fast enough to ratify Croatia’s entry in time. The legislative procedure generally takes six weeks or more. When you play chicken—a game where two cars barrel head on at each other to see who loses by veering away first—you should be sure your car has good brakes and steering.

The stakes are high for Croatia. While EU membership isn’t a miracle cure for all that ails the country, it will bring benefits that will aid its economic recovery. The country should not let this chance pass, especially over a relatively small sum of money. But it also needs to realize that for all its bluster, Slovenia’s position isn’t especially strong.

Slovenia is almost ready to follow Greece, Spain, and others with hat in hand to ask its EU brethren for a bail out. More billions of euros could be at stake. Even as the government collapses, bonds will still need to be refinanced. Why risk even some of the political capital it has with other EU members on a petty bank dispute?

So, come on, Slovenia. Where’s the love? You’re going to need a lot of friends pretty soon because those bond holders can turn out to be the real bullies. Just check your recent yield curves.

(Originally published in Croatian in 21. Stoljece, on Feb. 6, 2013.)